2017 Midseason Projection and Prediction Update

Earlier this week, I examined the teams which had the biggest differences between their preseason predictions & projections and their performance to date. To follow up on those outliers, below is every team’s actual winning percentage and then the difference between their projected/predicted winning percentages from our five contestants (projection systems PECOTA, Davenport, and the FanGraphs Depth Charts, and human predictions from Effectively Wild preview guests and BttP writers) and the composite of all five.

Without going too deeply into any of these, the teams that have been most like what we thought they would be in terms of wins have been the Reds, the White Sox, the Red Sox, and the Angels. Cincinnati has been particularly close, with an actual winning percentage almost identical to their composite, and even the projection that’s currently off by the most from FanGraphs is only .023 away.

At the other end of the spectrum, we already covered the Giants and their rather remarkable divergence from preseason expectations, with a -.166 difference from their composite projection. While everyone missed on the Giants by a huge margin, Grant Brisbee currently takes the title as the furthest away from their actual record, at .184 above their actual winning percentage of .378 (I’m not sure what to call this title. Most Wrong? Biggest Mistake? Probably best not to dwell on it). On to the table.

Div	Team	Act%	PEC	FG	Dav	BttP	EW	Comp
ALC	CLE	0.540	0.028	0.022	0.034	0.034	0.040	0.032
ALC	MIN	0.511	-0.030	-0.048	-0.042	-0.048	-0.048	-0.043
ALC	KCR	0.506	-0.062	-0.037	-0.068	-0.025	0.025	-0.033
ALC	DET	0.448	0.040	0.052	0.064	0.071	0.089	0.063
ALC	CWS	0.437	0.032	-0.011	0.007	0.007	-0.005	0.006
ALE	BOS	0.562	-0.025	0.000	-0.050	0.006	0.012	-0.011
ALE	NYY	0.523	-0.017	-0.023	-0.035	-0.011	0.002	-0.017
ALE	TBR	0.522	0.003	-0.010	-0.022	0.003	-0.059	-0.017
ALE	BAL	0.477	-0.020	0.023	0.011	0.042	0.029	0.017
ALE	TOR	0.466	0.034	0.065	0.053	0.071	0.071	0.059
ALW	HOU	0.674	-0.100	-0.112	-0.094	-0.118	-0.118	-0.109
ALW	TEX	0.489	0.036	0.023	0.011	0.048	0.060	0.036
ALW	LAA	0.489	-0.020	0.030	0.011	0.030	0.011	0.012
ALW	SEA	0.478	0.053	0.034	0.065	0.059	0.047	0.052
ALW	OAK	0.438	0.025	0.050	0.050	0.013	0.068	0.041
NLC	MIL	0.550	-0.069	-0.112	-0.093	-0.093	-0.118	-0.097
NLC	CHC	0.489	0.079	0.091	0.104	0.110	0.097	0.096
NLC	STL	0.489	-0.014	0.030	0.011	0.073	0.048	0.03
NLC	PIT	0.472	0.034	0.022	0.028	0.034	0.040	0.032
NLC	CIN	0.443	0.014	-0.023	0.008	0.008	-0.011	-0.001
NLE	WAS	0.591	-0.054	-0.029	-0.035	-0.048	-0.042	-0.042
NLE	ATL	0.483	-0.014	-0.032	-0.020	-0.026	-0.008	-0.020
NLE	MIA	0.471	0.004	0.017	0.023	0.029	0.029	0.020
NLE	NYM	0.454	0.083	0.077	0.071	0.089	0.114	0.087
NLE	PHI	0.333	0.136	0.111	0.105	0.105	0.118	0.115
NLW	LAD	0.678	-0.085	-0.098	-0.079	-0.092	-0.098	-0.090
NLW	ARI	0.596	-0.115	-0.121	-0.115	-0.121	-0.090	-0.112
NLW	COL	0.571	-0.102	-0.096	-0.108	-0.071	-0.114	-0.098
NLW	SDP	0.432	0.000	-0.025	-0.037	-0.025	-0.025	-0.022
NLW	SFG	0.378	0.159	0.159	0.153	0.178	0.184	0.166