Earlier this week, I examined the teams which had the biggest differences between their preseason predictions & projections and their performance to date. To follow up on those outliers, below is every team’s actual winning percentage and then the difference between their projected/predicted winning percentages from our five contestants (projection systems PECOTA, Davenport, and the FanGraphs Depth Charts, and human predictions from Effectively Wild preview guests and BttP writers) and the composite of all five.

Without going too deeply into any of these, the teams that have been most like what we thought they would be in terms of wins have been the Reds, the White Sox, the Red Sox, and the Angels. Cincinnati has been particularly close, with an actual winning percentage almost identical to their composite, and even the projection that’s currently off by the most from FanGraphs is only .023 away.

At the other end of the spectrum, we already covered the Giants and their rather remarkable divergence from preseason expectations, with a -.166 difference from their composite projection. While everyone missed on the Giants by a huge margin, Grant Brisbee currently takes the title as the furthest away from their actual record, at .184 above their actual winning percentage of .378 (I’m not sure what to call this title. Most Wrong? Biggest Mistake? Probably best not to dwell on it). On to the table.

DivTeamAct%PECFGDavBttPEWComp
ALCCLE0.5400.0280.0220.0340.0340.0400.032
ALCMIN0.511-0.030-0.048-0.042-0.048-0.048-0.043
ALCKCR0.506-0.062-0.037-0.068-0.0250.025-0.033
ALCDET0.4480.0400.0520.0640.0710.0890.063
ALCCWS0.4370.032-0.0110.0070.007-0.0050.006
ALEBOS0.562-0.0250.000-0.0500.0060.012-0.011
ALENYY0.523-0.017-0.023-0.035-0.0110.002-0.017
ALETBR0.5220.003-0.010-0.0220.003-0.059-0.017
ALEBAL0.477-0.0200.0230.0110.0420.0290.017
ALETOR0.4660.0340.0650.0530.0710.0710.059
ALWHOU0.674-0.100-0.112-0.094-0.118-0.118-0.109
ALWTEX0.4890.0360.0230.0110.0480.0600.036
ALWLAA0.489-0.0200.0300.0110.0300.0110.012
ALWSEA0.4780.0530.0340.0650.0590.0470.052
ALWOAK0.4380.0250.0500.0500.0130.0680.041
NLCMIL0.550-0.069-0.112-0.093-0.093-0.118-0.097
NLCCHC0.4890.0790.0910.1040.1100.0970.096
NLCSTL0.489-0.0140.0300.0110.0730.0480.03
NLCPIT0.4720.0340.0220.0280.0340.0400.032
NLCCIN0.4430.014-0.0230.0080.008-0.011-0.001
NLEWAS0.591-0.054-0.029-0.035-0.048-0.042-0.042
NLEATL0.483-0.014-0.032-0.020-0.026-0.008-0.020
NLEMIA0.4710.0040.0170.0230.0290.0290.020
NLENYM0.4540.0830.0770.0710.0890.1140.087
NLEPHI0.3330.1360.1110.1050.1050.1180.115
NLWLAD0.678-0.085-0.098-0.079-0.092-0.098-0.090
NLWARI0.596-0.115-0.121-0.115-0.121-0.090-0.112
NLWCOL0.571-0.102-0.096-0.108-0.071-0.114-0.098
NLWSDP0.4320.000-0.025-0.037-0.025-0.025-0.022
NLWSFG0.3780.1590.1590.1530.1780.1840.166
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